Beyond the PNP’s protest in Old Harbour

Unsurprisingly, the PNP leadership ramped up its corruption rhetoric against Prime Minister Andrew Holness’s Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) government. To the untrained eye, the demonstration might seem like mere politicking ahead of the constitutionally due general election in September, just three months away. But for those attuned to the nuances of Jamaican politics, multiple strategies were at play. 

The presence of heavyweights like party leader Mark Golding, General Secretary Dr. Dayton Campbell, and Peter Bunting signaled strong support for Dr. Kurt Waul, the man tasked with unseating the JLP’s Everald Warmington, St. Catherine South Western’s MP since 2002. 

The protest also served as a counter to the government’s hastily arranged handover ceremony the day before for Phase One of the US$8 million Myton Gully/Big Pond Drainage Improvement Project. Both Holness and Warmington touted the long-term benefits of this flood mitigation initiative, emphasizing its potential to reduce financial and social burdens on the community. Holness, in particular, seized the moment to remind viewers — online and in-person — that his administration has responsibly managed the environment while improving citizens’ lives. The subtext was clear: Vote JLP; we deserve another term.

Yet, 24 hours later, the PNP was in Old Harbour, making its case to voters in southwest St. Catherine, and to the nation, that Dr. Waul and his party should form the next government. This will be Waul’s second attempt at the seat after losing by over 5,000 votes in 2020. Back then, the medical doctor and Old Harbour Bay native had little time to prepare following the sudden death of Rudyard ‘Kippy’ Mears. Despite the defeat, Waul remained on the ground, building goodwill through initiatives like his free annual back-to-school medical programme and corner league football competitions. These efforts bolstered his profile and likely contributed to his victory in the February 2024 local government polls. 

Waul’s rising political stock has already shaken Warmington’s once-formidable fortress. The PNP’s takeover of Old Harbour South and its inroads into northern and central divisions suggest vulnerabilities in the JLP’s defenses. Warmington, a wily political veteran, is undoubtedly aware of this growing threat and will be shoring up his support ahead of what promises to be a fierce battle. 

This rematch, however, will differ starkly from 2020. Waul has had far more time to prepare and now enjoys the full backing of the PNP, an advantage previous challengers lacked. Additionally, Jamaica’s leader-centric politics could play a role: Holness’s declining political capital may hurt Warmington, as voters often base decisions on party leadership rather than local candidates. 

Still, Warmington remains the favorite. Yet the PNP senses an opportunity, and its latest protest in Jamaica’s fastest-growing town was a deliberate move to elevate Waul’s visibility. 

Outside garrison constituencies, no seat is truly safe, including southwest St. Catherine. In 1993, few believed Peter Bunting could defeat former Prime Minister Hugh Shearer in Clarendon South Eastern, until he did. Decades later, Bunting himself suffered a shock loss to political newcomer Rhoda Moy-Crawford in Manchester Central. 

Warmington is too seasoned to take anything for granted. He will be ready for another grueling fight. But can Waul’s irresistible force finally topple the obdurate veteran? Only time will tell when the election bell rings.